Simulation to Predict Effect of Citywide Events on Emergency Department Operations

Ferraro, Nicole M. MSc; Day, Theodore Eugene DSc
Pediatric Quality & Safety:
January 2017 - Volume 2 - Issue 1 - p e008

Abstract Excerpt

Summary: Medical emergency preparedness has been an issue of medical relevance since the advent of hospital care. Studies have simulated emergency department (ED) overcrowding but not yet characterized effects of large-scale, planned events that drastically alter a city’s demography, such as in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania during the 2015 World Meeting of Families. A discrete event simulation of the ED at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia was designed and validated using past data. The model was used to predict the patient length of stay (LOS) and number of admitted patients if the arrival stream to the ED were to change by 50% from typical arrivals in either direction. 
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